SWOP: Severe Weather Possible Tuesday and Wednesday
Today 3:11 PM
Severe thunderstorms will likely develop from eastern Kansas northeastward into central Iowa during the late afternoon and evening of Tuesday, June 14th. The atmosphere across this area will become highly unstable and moderately sheared, leading to the threat of rotating supercells. These storms will then congeal into a broken line as they push eastward across the Mississippi River Tuesday night. The airmass further east into Illinois will be considerably more stable and much less sheared, so the storms will likely weaken with eastward extent. Even still, some of the storms may produce gusty winds and small hail as they track through central Illinois after midnight.
Here is the current DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK for Tuesday, June 14th:
A few storms may linger across east-central Illinois through early Wednesday morning before sweeping eastward into Indiana. After that, the question becomes whether or not additional storms will fire Wednesday afternoon as a cold front passes through the region. The latest models agree that convective initiation will likely be further east than previously thought and may focus more along the remaining outflow boundary rather than the actual cold front. As such, the most likely location for potential severe weather Wednesday will be along and east of the I-57 corridor. Any storms that develop Wednesday afternoon and evening will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Here is the current DAY 3 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, June 15th:
While all of central Illinois is currently under the Day 3 SLIGHT RISK area, I think this may be trimmed from the west. For the latest updates from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), please monitor: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
SWOP Program Leader
And after saying my piece on pain, suffering and death caused by mortals, and leaving a few words about storms, shall leave and get on with life with little Bree…will be some time before I return again..but return I shall, Fate be willin’ and the creeks don’t rise… after all, as Yanni agrees, you only live once… 😀